The prediction table found in the Student Level and Subject Level PDFs displays predictions calculated from the regression equation for each subject. In this process grades are converted to points and a regression (or ‘Trend’) line is computed.
Below is an example of regression line from our Post-16 Reporting webinar here:
The predicted points thus represent the point score attained on average by all students of the same ability in the previous summer’s exam results. Some students will have got more points than this and some less. The predicted points are then converted to the nearest whole grade. Predictions are given using the Average (I)GCSE score as an indicator of ability and using the baseline test where scores are available.